Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.
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Affirm's Max Levchin Breaks Down How Buy Now, Pay Later Really Works
Max Levchin probably knows as much about online payments as anyone. He was part of the original "PayPal mafia" before going on to become co-founder and CEO of Affirm, the $22 billion player in the Buy Now, Pay Later industry that's hoping to disrupt the incumbent credit card companies. While BNPL is booming, there is still a lot of confusion about how it works, how it makes money, and how transparent its activities are. On this episode, we speak with Max about why he started his company, and why he believes that BNPL offers a superior product to traditional forms of payment and credit. We also discuss the current state of the economy, AI, and what he sees as the role of crypto in payments.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
AI Can Tell Us Something About Credit Market Weakness
There have been some wobbles in credit markets lately. It hasn't been too dramatic, but we've had some blowups, leading Jamie Dimon to speculate about the presence of other "cockroaches" lurking in the industry. But what do we actually know about the quality and practices of credit underwriting right now? Dan Wertman is the co-founder and CEO of Noetica, a startup that uses AI to scan deal documents and measure linguistic and term trends over time. Dan talks to us about what he's been seeing in the language of deal documents, and why there are reasons to think that more blowups are lurking around the corner. He also talks to us about how credit agreements are structured in the AI space, and how we should understand some of these huge data center financing deals we've seen lately. Read more:Oracle Credit Fear Gauge Hits Highest Since 2009 on AI Bubble FearsSecretive $3 Trillion Fund Giant Makes Flashy Move Into Private Assets Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Travis Kavulla Explains Why Electric Bills Shot Up
There's an incredible amount of focus on the grid this days. That's notable because for a long time, the grid was hardly of any interest. For years, load growth was flat. It was a sleepy market. And in fact, because it was sleepy, regulators and politicians and private companies started focusing on phasing out the dirtier parts of energy production. Now things have flipped. Prices are on the rise. Load growth is on the rise. And everyone's tying to figure out how we're going to attach all of these AI datacenters to the grid. On this episode, we speak with Travis Kavulla, the vice president of regulatory affairs at NRG. Prior to his current role, Travis served for eight years on Montana's Public Service Commission, and therefore has a good feel for what drives prices in both regulated and competitive electricity markets. He explains the factors that have pushed electricity costs up, particularly since the pandemic, and the calculations that have to be made to plan for the future burdens that will be placed on the grid. Read more:Americans Paying Record Electricity Prices as Gas Costs ClimbAs Federal Support Withers, California Invests in Cheap Heat Pumps Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This Is Why Credit Card Interest Rates Are So High
Some people pay off their credit cards at the end of each month. They use the cards as a payment method and collect points and rewards, and never have to pay any interest. For other users, interest can be sky high — way higher than what would be expected simply based on a user's credit or default risk. Why is this? And how do credit card companies get away with charging interest at these levels? On this episode, we speak with Itamar Dreschsler, a finance professor at Wharton, who recently co-authored a piece titled Why Are Credit Card Rates so High? Drechsler walks us through the costs of running a credit card operation and explains what borrowers are really paying for. Read more:US Consumer Confidence Falls by Most Since April on EconomyGambling, Prediction Markets Create New Credit Risks, BofA Warns Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Graham Allison on the Risks of a US-China War
The US and China are in a "Thucydides Trap," whereby the risk of war is heightened when an established power is threatened by a rapidly rising power. This is the framework that's been popularized by Graham Allison, the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University. Professor Allison has been writing about China and the US-China relationship for decades. He's been focused on the growing odds of a violent conflict between the two powers. On this episode, he explains his work and the conditions that drive greater risk of armed conflict. He also tells us what both sides get wrong about each other, and what it will take to reduce the odds of military involvement.More: Henry Wang on China's Role in the New Emerging World Order Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Ray Dalio on the Five Forces That Make This a Historical Moment
You're not imagining it. This really is a moment of tremendous historical change. Various forces are all aligned right now and reshaping how the world operates. That's the view of Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Capital, the world's biggest hedge fund. While Odd Lots has been around for 10 years, Dalio ran Bridgewater for an extraordinary five decades, so he's the perfect person to get a big picture understanding of what's going on. He talks about how a mix of rising wealth inequality, the AI boom, a burgeoning national debt, and more, are changing the world. We also talk about lessons he learned from running Bridgewater, the importance of meditation, as well as his long-term skepticism about the pod shop hedge fund model. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Risky Business Preview
Here’s a preview of another podcast we enjoy, Risky Business with Nate Silver and MariaKonnikova. Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. Hosted byjournalist and psychologist Maria Konnikova and data analyst and election forecaster NateSilver, who both happen to be accomplished high-stakes poker players, the show explores howwe navigate uncertainty in politics, poker, and everyday life. From unpacking AI hype to divingdeep into election forecasting to discussing trust on reality TV, they break down the odds behindthe headlines. Because every choice is a bet. New episodes drop on Wednesdays and Fridays—listen to Risky Business wherever you get podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Why America's Cattle Ranchers Keep Getting Squeezed
The country's cattle herd has shrunk to its smallest size in decades and beef prices have been soaring this year, with hamburgers and steaks becoming the latest flashpoints in the political debate over higher food prices. In this episode, we untangle the roots of declining domestic beef supply — from drought and surging feed costs to the lasting impact of consolidation in the meatpacking industry. We speak with Bill Bullard, CEO of R-CALF USA, a trade association for independent cattle ranchers, about the forces shrinking America's cattle industry and what can be done about it. (Editor's Note: This episode was recorded Oct. 30)Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
What Susan Collins Wants to See Before Supporting Another Rate Cut
In early November, it looked like almost a sure thing that the Federal Reserve would cut rates. Since then, the odds have come in dramatically, as a number of FOMC members have been talking about persistent inflationary pressures. One such voice has been Susan Collins, the president of the Boston Fed. On this episode, she explains her thinking as to why, right now, she's more concerned about inflation than she is about the labor market, and she tells us what she'd like to see before supporting another rate cut. Today's episode coincides with the first day of the Boston Fed's annual economic research conference, which will be streaming live on the bank's website. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Tyler Cowen on Why AI Hasn't Changed the World Yet
In many respects, AI technology is already mind-blowing, and can perform many tasks far better than the average person. And yet by and large, its impact has been hard to detect. We haven't seen some huge labor displacement, for example. There's nothing dramatic yet happening in the productivity data. So when will the impact really start to be felt? On this episode, we speak with Tyler Cowen, a professor at George Mason University and the co-author of the famed econ blog Marginal Revolution. He's also the host of the Conversations with Tyler podcast. We talk about when we'll really start feeling AIs impact, as well as other topics, like food, music, and the general state of discourse. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Politics of AI Are About to Explode
AI wasn't much of a topic in the 2024 election. But it will almost certainly be big in 2028, and probably even the 2026 midterms. There are concerns about all the money being spent and whether a federal backstop or bailout will be necessary one day. There are the concerns about energy use and electricity prices. There are concerns about labor displacement. And there are concerns about whether we can trust AI outputs. Already we see numerous politicians lining up against AI in one way or another. On this episode, we speak with Saagar Enjeti, the co-host of the Breaking Points podcast to discuss how this issue is already blowing up, and how the tech industry may soon find itself friendless in DC. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Jeffrey Gundlach Says Almost All Financial Assets Are Now Overvalued
Stocks are overpriced. Bonds are overpriced. And private assets are a powder keg. This is the view of Jeffrey Gundlach, the founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital. As part of our 10-year anniversary celebration of the Odd Lots podcast, we've been talking to some big names in markets and economics to get a sense of how they see the world and what's changed in recent years. One major change, obviously, is the end of ZIRP. And while Treasuries have rallied modestly this year, Gundlach sees mounting pressure on government balance sheets pushing yields higher going into the future. We also talk about gold, the greater opportunities for a US-based investor when looking internationally, and why everyone should be holding more cash in their portfolios.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Citi's Dirk Willer on How You Know When the Bubble Is Over
According to Dirk Willer, the Global Head of Macro Strategy at Citigroup, we are definitely in bubble territory. Per his research, the stock market has been in a bubble since May. Unlike many people, whose definitions of bubbles are a bit more vague or a bit more based on sentiment, Dirk's work focuses on precise timing and price indicators that distinguish bubbles from mere booms. Furthermore, he argues that when the bubble first forms, the correct move historically is to buy into it and then just accept that you'll never nail the top perfectly. On this episode, we talk about his overall approach as well as the signs of when the bubble has come to an end. We also talk about current parallels to the dotcom bubble, why gold has had such a monster year, and the signs from the Treasury market that make the US look increasingly like an emerging market. Read more:Stock Bounce Wanes on Fed Angst as Bitcoin Plunges: Markets WrapGold ‘Trading Like a Meme Stock’ Sets Up Miners as Levered Bet Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Why Paul Kedrosky Says AI Is Like Every Bubble All Rolled Into One
In recent weeks, there's been renewed anxiety about the sustainability of the AI boom. This is partly due to comments from OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar about a possible role for a government backstop in the AI infrastructure build out. We've also seen the stock market wobble, with many major tech names hit hard. But even with all these concerns, we continue to see new announcements all the time. Just this week, Anthropic said it would spend $50 billion on data center development in the US. So are we actually in a bubble? Our guest on this episode believes we are -- and not just any bubble. According to Paul Kedrosky, a longtime VC currently at SK Ventures, the AI bubble is like every previous bubble rolled into one. There's the real estate element. There's the tech element. And, increasingly, there are exotic financing structures being put in place to fund it all. And then on top of that, there's talk of government bailouts and backstops. In this episode, we walk through some of the math that would be required to justify all this spending, and how the seemingly existential stakes of 'winning the AI race' is causing an unsustainable investment binge. Read more:AI Startup Cursor Raises Funds at $29.3 Billion ValuationPoint72’s Drossos Sees AI Boom Driving Gains in Asian Currencies Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Cliff Asness on How Markets Got Dumber in the Last 10 Years
The Odd Lots podcast has been around for 10 years. Unfortunately, markets have gotten less rational over the same time frame. At least this is the contention of Cliff Asness, the co-founder and CEO of AQR Capital Management, a quantitative investing firm that's been around for nearly three decades. Asness' approach to investing is rooted in academic theory, having studied under the legendary Eugene Fama at the University of Chicago. In the world of social media and meme stocks, it's tough out there for the academically minded. And that's forced Cliff to adjust his approach over time. On this episode, we talk about the history of quantitative investing, market efficiency, and the emergence of AI/ML in his process. We also talk about the reality of investing other people's money, and the challenge of sticking with one's convictions at a time when temporary forces are working against you.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.