Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.
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Alex Imas on Why Economists Might Be Getting AI Wrong
Everyone knows that new technologies can be really disruptive to the labor market, but eventually new jobs emerge and things come back into balance. And there is a sense in which many view AI with the same lens. Yes, there will be pain in some sectors, but then there will be productivity gains and new sources of demand and new opportunities for labor that we can't conceive of yet. But could it be different this time? Could AI be disruptive in a manner that, say, the steam engine was not? On this episode we speak with Alex Imas, a professor at the University of Chicago focusing on economics and applied AI. We talk about his work on the AI and labor question, how to think about which jobs may be most at risk, and why the sheer speed of AI development could make it categorically different than prior general purpose technologies that came before it. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Planet Money Turned Everyday Annoyances Into an Economics Book
There are a lot of things to be annoyed about in modern life. The high cost of food and housing and childcare. Dating apps that don't seem to work. The fear of AI replacing you at your job. These are all common complaints and concerns, and each of them can be traced to a specific economic phenomenon or market structure issue. Once you start thinking about the world in this way, you can't unsee it. In this episode, we speak with Planet Money co-host Mary Childs, and contributor to the podcast, Alex Mayassi. They've just written a book called Planet Money: A Guide to the Economic Forces That Shape Your Life. We discuss how one of Tracy's childhood memories was a reflection of the commodity trap, what Baumol's cost disease tells us about daycare, and why -- despite all these frustrations -- there are still many reasons to be optimistic about economic progress. Read more:Australia Secures Fertilizer From Indonesia to Meet Crop NeedsKerrygold Butter Maker Sees Iran War Costs Hitting Consumers Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Brad Setser on the War in Iran and the Future of the US Dollar
It's possible that the war in Iran could reshape financial flows in significant ways. Perhaps the Gulf states will end up as less desirable places to do business. Perhaps Iran will have a tollbooth at the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps this episode will accelerate the world's shift away from oil. It's impossible to say. But given the uncertainty, fresh questions are being raised about the existing financial world order, upon the top of which the US dollar sits. On this episode, we speak once again with Brad Setser, the Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. We discuss how the war is already creating new global imbalances, and the degree to which this episode parallels past energy shocks. We also talk about broader trends in reserve management, other factors driving financial flows, and the unique situation facing East Asia, which is seeing a surge in its energy import bills at the same time its making making a fortune selling chips for the AI boom. Read more:US Probes Suspicious Oil Trades Made Before Trump PivotsChina’s $51 Trillion Savings Help Bonds to Outperform During War Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
War in Iran Is Already Reshaping East Asia's Energy Future
The war in Iran has caused the price of all kinds of commodities to surge, and that has a negative economic impact almost everywhere. But the squeeze is really being felt hard in East Asia, which is the ultimate destination for a lot of oil and gas that come out of the Gulf. And though the Strait of Hormuz may eventually re-open, and the acute pain may pass, this episode may already be reshaping the future. On this episode of the podcast we speak with Alex Turnbull, an investor based in Singapore, and a researcher on energy topics with the Australian National University. He argues that the war will accelerate the region's appetite to restart nuclear power plants, ultimately lessening its dependence on imported natural gas. He also notes that per his channel checks, the region is already seeing a jump in demand for electric vehicles, with BYD dealers holding less and less inventory on hand.Read more: US, Iran Seek More Ceasefire Talks as Blockade Stops ShipsThere Are No Easy Exits From Iran for the US Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Presenting What Next TBD: Why Everyone is Freaking out About Private Credit
It's fueling the A.I. bubble, it's coming to your retirement portfolio—and it's flashing a lot of warning signs right now.In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, private credit or “shadow banking” grew as an alternative to the regulations and shared risk that institutional banks operate within. What happens if a crisis hits the trillions of dollars that are outside of those guardrails? We may be about to find out. Guest: Tracy Alloway, co-host of Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast.https://slate.com/podcasts/what-next-tbdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf
Regardless of whether the war with Iran continues, it seems likely to have a lasting impact on the Gulf states. They may have to rebuild damaged pipelines and other infrastructure, or create new ones that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. They might have to spend more money on their own defense, or intensify a push to diversify their economies away from oil. New political alliances may be formed, and old ones could fall apart. In this episode, we bring back Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist at Bloomberg Economics, to discuss the many ways the war could impact the region for years to come. Read more:Gulf Airspace Disruptions From Iran War Hits Seychelles TourismBankers Start Weighing UAE Return Hours After US-Iran Ceasefire Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Big Macro Force That's Been Driving Stocks Higher for Years
Stocks have gone up over the years because corporate earnings continue to grow. That part is straightforward. But in addition to rising stock prices, we've also seen rising stock market valuations. For years, investors have talked about stocks being unreasonably priced, and yet they haven't reverted to historical norms. But perhaps there's a good explanation for this, beyond just animal spirits. Jonathan Heathcote is an economist at the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, who recently co-authored a paper titled, A Macroeconomic Perspective on Stock Market Valuation Ratios. Along with co-authors Andrew Atkeson and Fabrizio Perri, they argue that while stocks may look rich on metrics like price-to-earnings ratios, they look a lot better when based on free cash flow. In other words, because companies haven't had to invest much, their equity is more valuable. Furthermore, labor's share of the profits — the percentage that goes to workers relative to capital — has been on the decline. Of course, these days the big story is about how big, profitable tech companies are spending a fortune on capital expenditure for the AI buildout. So we talked to Jonathan about his research and discuss the possibility that this trend in free cash flow growth could reverse, and therefore hit stock market valuations, too. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
How Shipping Insurance Really Works During a War
When the conflict with Iran started, some of the first headlines we saw had to do with shipping insurance. Marine insurers were said to be canceling war risk coverage for vessels going through the Strait of Hormuz. Premiums were said to surge. Meanwhile, the Trump administration announced it would offer its own insurance for ships traversing the Persian Gulf, in an effort to get things moving again. So why is insurance such a crucial part of maritime trade? And how does the system actually work? In this episode, we speak with Dorothea Ioannou, CEO of the American P&I Club, and Steven Ogullukian, the club's reinsurance director. We talk about the different roles of insurers, reinsurers, insurance clubs, and why ships need to have separate coverage for things like war, liability and hull loss. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Thomas Peterffy on Interactive Brokers' Plan to Professionalize Prediction Markets
Right now, when you think about prediction markets, you basically think about two main companies: Polymarket and Kalshi. And then when you think of what's being traded on those platforms, there's a whole range of stuff from elections to sports to real economic outcomes, to totally gonzo random stuff, like who will win the next season of Big Brother. So far, sports is where a lot of the money is. But at least in theory, prediction markets could be a popular instrument for professional, institutional traders. Thomas Peterffy is the founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers, one of the most successful and groundbreaking electronic brokerages for both institutions and serious retail traders. Now Interactive Brokers is getting into the predictions space. In this episode, we talk to Peterffy on why he believes prediction markets will be the next big thing in markets, why he thinks his firm could be a major player, and what it will take to transform the space from a large curiosity to something seriously used by institutions.Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Search Engine Presents: Are you a good driver?
The story of how a secret project at Google led to driverless cars on American roads. And, an answer to the question: are the robots actually safer drivers than we are? Find Part 2: “The Trial of the Driverless Car” HERESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Gina Raimondo on How European Industry Is Getting Crushed
The relationship between the US and Europe is deteriorating along both security and economic dimensions. The Trump administration has imposed tariffs, while also being sharply critical of NATO allies. So what are European leaders to do? Hope things go back to normal in the US? Or perhaps become closer with China? Our guest on this episode says the latter would be a grave mistake. This episode was recorded live on April 1 at the DC headquarters of the Council on Foreign Relations. We spoke with Gina Raimondo, now a CFR Distinguished Fellow, who previously served as the commerce secretary in the Biden Administration, and prior to that was the governor of Rhode Island. She discusses her view that European industry is being hollowed out by China, and that the only path forward is a global, unified, non-China trading bloc, which is an idea that's being thwarted by the Trump administration. We also talk about the legacy of the CHIPS Act, and her fears about AI creating mass unemployment and destabilizing our democracy. Read more:US Lawmakers Propose Crackdown on Chip Tool Sales to ChinaCheap Chinese Cars Are Waiting on Detroit's Doorstep Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Scott Bok Explains What Investment Bankers Actually Do All Day
There's obviously a lot of talk these days about AI and possible destruction of white collar jobs. Intuitively bankers might be expected to be victims of this. But before we can answer whether AI can disrupt an industry, or a line of work, we have to know what the job actually entails. What do investment bankers actually do, and why are they paid for it? To answer this question, we speak with Scott Bok, the longtime former CEO of the investment bank Greenhill. Scott is also the author of the book Surviving Wall Street: A Tale of Triumph, Tragedy, and Timing. We discuss how the industry changed in his career, what type of people thrive in it, and how AI could change the nature of the profession. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This Is How to Tell if Writing Was Made by AI
When you consider the fact that many people don't know how and where to place a comma, it's safe to say that AI is already better than most people at writing. It's clean copy. It can be surprisingly persuasive. And sometimes, it's even informative. But there's frequently still something about it that just seems... off. Many people can tell quite quickly when they're reading AI-generated text. And beyond the style, the existence of AI generated text has all kinds of ramifications, from making it easier for students to cheat, to the rise of deceptive chatbots, to potentially degrading the experience on sites like Reddit. So how do you actually tell if a piece of writing was generated by AI? On this episode, we speak with Max Spero, the CEO of Pangram Labs, a company that built software to detect whether a piece of content was AI generated or not. We talk about the advanced techniques they use, the risk of false positives and false negatives, and what AI writing means in general for the future of the Internet. Read more:The AI Video Apps Gaining Ground After OpenAI Declared Sora DeadCredit Derivative Trading Shatters Records on Iran War, AI Fears Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Javier Blas on Why Oil Could Go Much, Much Higher
Oil has shot up by a lot since the start of war with Iran. But it could still get much worse. So far, the massive disruption (due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz) has been cushioned by the drawing down of inventories and distributions from strategic stockpiles. Meanwhile, there is some oil still on tankers that has yet to be delivered. According to Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas, the potential remains for oil to go much, much higher. On this episode, we speak with Javier about the scale of the shock, why the pain is extraordinarily high in East Asia, how this compares to past oil shocks, and what the world would look like if Iran retains control of the Strait. Read more:Oil Falls on Signs From US, Iran of Openness for War Resolution Trump’s God Squad Exempts Gulf Drilling from Endangered Species Protections Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Why NASA Hired a Chief Economist
This week, NASA is scheduled to launch Artemis II, a mission that will send astronauts around the moon for the first time in more than 50 years. But this comes at a time when the space agency is facing some pretty big funding challenges, as well as growing competition with private players like SpaceX. In this episode, we speak with Alexander MacDonald, who served as NASA's first chief economist and is now a senior associate at the Aerospace Security Project at CSIS. We talk about why the space agency had economists, how space exploration is funded, and how NASA measures its own economic impact. Please note, this episode was recorded March 10. Read more:Nasdaq Speeds Up Index Entry for SpaceX, Large IPOs With New Rule SpaceX Knocks Boeing From Dominant Role in NASA Moon Mission Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.