Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.
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Ariel Investments' John Rogers on How You Can Still Win With Value Investing
These days if you talk to people about the stock market, they might talk to you about the effect of the Fed. Or they'll talk about the Mag 7 and AI capex spend. Or they'll extoll the virtues of passive, low-cost investing. It seems like you hear less and less about the art of security selection: Finding cheap diamonds in the rough that have been overlooked by other investors. But some people are still keeping that world alive. John Rogers is the founder and co-CEO of Ariel Investments, and in his primary mutual fund he invests only in mid- and small-cap companies. Recorded live on stage at the Future Proof Festival in Huntington Beach, CA, we talk about his approach. He explains why he believes value investing still works, and the process he uses to select individual names. We also discuss what he looks for and how he researches stock picks. Among other things, he tells us why he's invested in The Sphere (yes, that Sphere in Vegas) as well as the company that makes the McFlurry machines for McDonald's.Read More: Stocks, Bonds Trim Declines After Waller Comments: Markets Wrap Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Lots More With Sam Ro on the Booming World of RIAs
The Future Proof Festival takes place right on the beach in Huntington Beach, California. Thousands of registered investment advisors from all over the country come to talk shop, take pitches from vendors, eat tacos, drink beer, and listen to a concert from Third Eye Blind. On this Lots More, we talk with Sam Ro, the author of the Tker.com newsletter about the RIA scene, financial media, behavioral finance, the Fed, and the business of musical artists playing at conferences. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Next Stage of the Credit Cycle with Oaktree’s Poli
This week, the Fed cut benchmark rates by 50 basis points. Lower financing costs should be a relief for companies that need to borrow in the form of bonds or loans. But, the weird thing about the previous few years of high rates and high inflation is how much corporate credit has defied expectations. While defaults increased slightly, there wasn’t a huge wave of bankruptcies. And most companies haven’t really had trouble finding financing, with a smorgasbord of options available to them — including from the booming private credit market. So what happens now that the Fed is lowering rates? In this episode, we speak with Danielle Poli, co-portfolio manager of Oaktree’s Diversified Income Fund and a founding member of the firm’s investment committee, about how she sees the next leg of the credit cycle unfolding, and how she decides between a multitude of potential investments in the space. Related Links:The Black Hole of Private Credit That’s Swallowing the EconomyThe Hottest Way for Banks to Get Risk Off Their Balance Sheets Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Pimco CIO Dan Ivascyn on the Biggest Fed Decision in Years
It’s Fed Day, and while everyone expects the central bank to cut benchmark interest rates, the key question is by how much? Will it be 25 basis points or 50? Investors are evenly split between the two possibilities, setting up one of the most uncertain meetings ever. So what does a big bond manager do on a day like this? In this episode, we speak with Dan Ivascyn, Group CIO at Pimco, where he manages the $158 billion Pimco Income Fund. He tells us what he’s expecting from the FOMC, and what he’s seeing in terms of financial conditions and the real restrictiveness of the monetary environment right now. He also walks us through what Fed day is actually like at Pimco, where he thinks the economy is going, and answers the question of whether — with rates finally going down — bonds might be back in favor.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
How Josh Brown Created A Financial Media Empire
15 years ago was a pivotal moment for financial media. On the one hand, we were in the midst of a huge financial crisis, which shook everything up and exposed how little we knew about our own world. In addition to that, we were in the early moments of a revolution, which saw the rise of blogs, podcasts, "Finance Twitter" and other new platforms for disseminating information about markets and business. One of the winners from that era was Josh Brown, a former stockbroker who rose to fame in part on the back of his must-read blog The Reformed Broker. Now he's the CEO of a large investment advisory firm, Ritholtz Wealth Management. He's got a popular podcast. He's got a new book. He's a fixture on CNBC. And he even has a conference business. We talk about his career path, what he's learned, some funny stories from the good old days, and how he became a media giant.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Security, Bookmarked: Finance (Sponsored Content)
Financial institutions have been a leading target for cyber crime since the dawn of the internet. But phishing schemes have become far more intricate, and cyber heists go beyond stealing money from a bank. JF Legault, Deputy CISO at J.P. Morgan Chase, explains how he leads cyber defense on the front lines of work — and lays out a strategy to transform teams into early detection networks. Then David Adrian from Chrome unpacks how web browsing protections, robust monitoring, and a real-time view of threats can fit into this kind of strategy to maximize resilience to a cyber attack. This episode is sponsored by Chrome Enterprise.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Lots More With Isabella Weber on Draghi's EU Competitiveness Report
This week, former European Central Bank President and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi published a long-awaited report examining ways to make the European economy more competitive. The report comes at a time when there are major concerns about how Europe is stacking up against the US and China in things like electrical vehicles and AI. It also dovetails with long-running debates about German fiscal austerity, economic tensions between various European Union members, energy crises, and inflation. In this episode, we speak with University of Massachusetts-Amherst economics professor Isabella Weber about her takeaways from the report and potential policy approaches to solving Europe's big competitiveness problem.Referenced in this episode:Draghi Says EU Itself at Risk Without More Funds, Joint DebtDraghi’s Call for Joint EU Bonds Hits Wall of German Opposition Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Adam Tooze on the Big Misconceptions of the Chinese Economy
One of the big buzzwords over the last year or so has been "overcapacity." There's a constant line of argument that China is unfairly flooding the world with unprofitable goods and creating huge, unsustainable imbalances. Western countries, particularly the US (but also Europe), have responded by raising tariffs and engaging in domestic industrial policy in order to compete. But is the strategy sound? Are the basic premises of the problem correct? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Columbia Professor Adam Tooze, the author of several books, as well as the popular Chartbook newsletter. He argues that the overcapacity framing is misguided, and that the US may be making a mistake putting its chips down on an industrial revival. He talks us through some of the actual weaknesses of the Chinese model, as well as its global political reverberations. Read more: Two Veteran Chip Builders Have a Plan to Take On Nvidia The US and China Are in an All Out Race for AI DominationSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
US Trade Rep Katherine Tai Describes the New Era of Globalization
One of the rare areas of bipartisan consensus in the US right now, is on the need to change our trading relationship with China. Former President Donald Trump started a process of putting tariffs on Chinese goods and limiting the export of certain key technologies. This has only expanded under the Biden administration, with expanded restrictions on things like electric vehicles, solar panels, and semiconductors. So what's the thinking behind this drive? What are the goals and what are the risks? On this episode we speak with the United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai. Ambassador Tai describes what she sees as a rethink, or a new version of, globalization. She explains the new worker-centric priorities, how trade fits into domestic investments, and what a healthy version of international economic relations actually looks like. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Booming Crypto Use Case That's Happening Right Now
Pretty much since the moment that cryptocurrencies came into existence, there's been a chorus of skeptics who argue that they solve no real world use cases, except for gambling and speculation. For a while, there was a lot of hype about things like Web3 or DeFi, but for the most part, these still remain in the realm of pure speculation and gambling. And so, the ultimate use case for crypto remains elusive. Our guest on this episode argues otherwise. He thinks that stablecoins, such as Circle or Paxos, which are backed by actual dollar instruments in regulated institutions running on public blockchains (like Ethereum or Solana) are solving a genuine problem in transmitting money, beyond just speculating on other cryptocurrencies. Austin Campbell is an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School and the founder of Zero Knowledge Consulting. He also comes with a long resume at both crypto and legacy financial institutions. He explains why stablecoins are having a moment and explains the problems they currently solve (particularly internationally) and why legacy payments infrastructure is unlikely to serve the same needs. Read more: The Case for Stablecoins Being the New Shadow Banks How Stablecoins Became a Powerful Force in Crypto Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
How Hedge Funds Discover the Next Superstar Trader
One of the problems in investing or trading is that — to use a common disclaimer — past results are no guarantee of future success. Someone can have a great track record in their stock picks, but maybe they just got lucky. Or maybe they were particularly well-dialed into one market regime that inevitably shifts. Or maybe they're actually just better than other traders. For multi-strategy hedge funds or "pod shops," there's an ongoing battle to hire or train the next great portfolio manager. But how can managers tell who is actually good and who isn't? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Joe Peta, who was previously the head of performance analytics at Point72 Asset Management and has had a long career in the trading world. He's also an avid fan of sports gambling, and the author of the recent book, Moneyball for the Money Set, which attempts to take some of the talent analytical principles that originated in Major League Baseball and apply them to evaluating portfolio managers. He talks us through the traditional approach funds use to find or create superstars, and how these approaches can be improved upon using more rigorous, quantitative methods.Mentioned in this episode: Hedge Fund Talent Schools Are Looking for the Perfect TraderHow to Succeed at Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Black Hole of Private Credit That's Swallowing the Economy
There's been a lot of talk about private credit in recent years. The market has exploded in size, and there are worries that it could be a bubble that eventually bursts and sparks disaster. But there are other negative effects from private credit that might already be happening. In a new paper called "The Credit Markets Go Dark," co-authors Harvard Law School professor Jared Ellias and Duke University School of Law professor Elisabeth de Fontenay argue that the $1.5 trillion market for private credit is already having a big impact on the economy — and not in a good way. They say that the rise of private credit marks a seismic change for corporate governance and dynamism.Read More: Odd Lots Newsletter: The Black Hole of Private CreditPrivate Credit Pushes Deeper Into Risk That Wall Street Is FleeingOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Adam Posen on the Dangers of Jerome Powell's 'Rifle Shot' Jackson Hole Speech
Last week at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a short and powerful speech indicating that it's time for a policy pivot. The goal now, from his perspective, is to prevent further deterioration of the US labor market. His speech didn't delve much into theory or nuance. In this episode, we speak with Peterson Institute President, Adam Posen, who found the speech unsatisfying. He argues that the state of the labor market, while cooling, didn't merit a "rifle shot" approach, such as the one Powell delivered. He explains his concerns and how he sees the risks materializing from here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Hyun Song Shin on How Big the Yen Carry Trade Really Is
Remember August 5th? That was the day that markets around the world plunged in historic fashion and everyone became an overnight expert on the yen carry trade. But what really is the yen carry trade? How big is it? Who is making the trade? And what is its connection to markets all around the world? On this episode, recorded at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, we speak with Hyun Song Shin, economic advisor and head of research at the Bank for International Settlements. He walks us through the mechanics of the trade, what went on in early August, and the lessons we've already learned from it.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
A New Way for the Fed to Fight a Market Crisis
When the Treasury market broke in March 2020, the Federal Reserve intervened in extraordinary fashion. It purchased more than $1 trillion worth of Treasury securities in that month alone. Superficially, this looked a lot like the Quantitative Easing that we came to know during the GFC. But it's purpose was different. This wasn't about depressing the yield curve or providing a form of strong forward guidance. Instead, it was the Fed taking on a role of the "market maker of last resort," so to speak. And yet, despite the different goals, the two different operations look the same and are carried out by the same officials (the members of the FOMC). This creates confusion, cost, and can create a situation where it looks like the Fed is working against itself. On this episode of the podcast, which was recorded in Jackson Hole at the Kansas City Fed's annual Economic Symposium, we speak with University of Chicago Booth professor, Anil Kashyap. He presented a paper at the conference proposing a separate tool within the Fed that can handle balance sheet operations for financial stability. We discussed his proposal along with broader questions about the transmission of monetary policy. Related link: Monetary Policy Implications of Market Marker of Last Resort OperationsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.