Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.
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Why Savita Subramanian Thinks Stocks Can Keep Going Higher
When Savita Subramanian, head of US equity strategy at Bank of America, raised her outlook for stocks at the end of last year, there was a lot of skepticism that equities could go any higher. The S&P 500 had already surged on expectations that the Federal Reserve would start cutting rates in 2024. And investors were very excited about AI. Then, in early March, she increased her year-end target for the S&P 500 even further, going from 5,000 to 5,400. Fast forward to the start of April, and the rally has continued even as markets ratcheted down their expectations for rate cuts this year. Of course, there are questions about whether investors are getting ahead of themselves and whether things are starting to feel a little frothy. In this episode, Subramanian explains why she thinks stocks can go up even further from here, how she's thinking about valuations, and why we shouldn't be too worried just yet about a repeat of the early 2000s internet bubble.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Why the CRE Urban Doom Loop May Still Be Coming
When it comes to the collapse in office real estate, there's a lot of focus on who owns the debt, and what kind of pain must eventually be realized by someone. But there may be an even deeper challenge for big cities like New York or San Francisco. Office buildings, and the various restaurants and shops that cater to daily workers, are big contributors to the tax base of many cities. What happens if that goes into decline? In theory, you can get a doom loop of population loss leading to lower activity, leading to lower taxes, leading to lower spending, leading to worse public service, leading to more population loss and on and on it goes. So is that still a risk in 2024? On this episode we speak with Arpit Gupta, associate professor of finance at New York University's Stern School of Business, who has been tracking this risk for awhile. He gives an update on where things stand and why some of the pain may still be possible in the future.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Lots More on the Parabolic Surge in Cocoa Prices
The cost of cocoa beans has surged to a record $10,000 per metric ton. That's expected to make chocolate more expensive for millions of confectionary fans around the world. But why have prices more than doubled in the past few months alone? And what could halt the surge? We speak with Bloomberg Opinion columnist and Odd Lots favorite Javier Blas. He describes how a combination of chronic underinvestment in cocoa supply has run head first into financial markets to squeeze prices higher.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Mega Corporations That Control What Americans Eat
Walk into a grocery store today and there are seemingly endless shelves of product to choose from. But behind all those different options are a handful of agricultural giants that have grown to dominate the food industry. Companies like Walmart and Cargill are well-known at this point, but there are also dominant players in everything from berries to dairy to pig farming. In this episode, we speak with Austin Frerick, an antitrust lawyer and agricultural expert. His new book, Barons: Money, Power, and the Corruption of America's Food Industry, details the behemoths behind American agriculture and how they got so big. He talks about the choices that went into our current agricultural system, the impact of all that concentration, and what can be done to change it.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Sal Mercogliano on the Baltimore Bridge Collapse
On March 26th, a massive container ship called the Dali ploughed into Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge, a major overpass just outside the city's port. The collision caused the bridge to dramatically collapse, sparked a search and rescue mission for survivors. It also cut off a busy shipping lane in and out of the Port of Baltimore. So what do we know about the collision? And what could the impacts of the latest maritime disaster actually be? On this emergency episode of Odd Lots, we speak to Sal Mercogliano, a professor at Campbell University and the host of the What Is Going On With Shipping? show on YouTube, about what we know so far.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Listen Now: The Big Take
The Big Take from Bloomberg News brings you inside what’s shaping the world's economies with the smartest and most informed business reporters around the world. The context you need on the stories that can move markets. Every afternoon.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Economist Who Believes AI Will Be Great for the Middle Class
AI is an incredibly exciting space, provoking both great wonder and fear. One of the big worries obviously is: What will happen to everyone's job? Will it make more people's livelihoods obsolete, causing even greater inequality than we have now? On this episode, we speak with an economist who argues that this concern is not just misplaced, but exactly wrong. MIT's David Autor, famous for his work on the China shock, contends that the last 40 years of advances in computer technology have been a major driver of inequality, but AI should be seen as an entirely different paradigm. He argues that human work, aided by AI, will remove the premium captured by extremely high-paid, experienced professionals (like doctors or top lawyers) as their capabilities become more diffuse. He also discusses what policy choices the government should be making to improve the odds that AI will prove societally beneficial.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Lots More on the Big Can Kick in Commercial Real Estate
Last year, we spoke with Rich Hill, head of real estate strategy and research at Cohen & Steers, about where stress was building in the $20 trillion market for commercial real estate. Fast forward to today and the doomsday scenario in commercial real estate just hasn't played out like a lot of people thought it would. Defaults have increased, but they aren't disastrous. And some measures of CRE have even been rallying in recent months. So what's driving this surprising resilience? Hill sees it as a 'prisoner's dilemma' where lenders and borrowers have agreed to amend and extend loans in order to both benefit and buy some time. But how long can that continue? And what does the CRE market need to see in order to mount a durable recovery?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Why Home Insurance Markets in California and Florida Imploded
In recent years, we've seen home insurance premiums soar by historic amounts. Not only have prices gone up, but in some instances, we've seen national carriers simply announce that they're abandoning certain states. So, what's behind the mess? Why isn't competition causing markets to come into balance? What is the role of state insurance regulators? On this episode we speak with two guests who help us understand the problem. Amias Gerety is a partner at QED Investors, and a board member for the insurance company Kin. RJ Lehmann is the editor-in-chief for the International Center for Law & Economics. The two of them discuss insurance from both the financial side and the regulatory side. They explain where things have gone wrong and the prospects for market stabilization.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
How the US Dollar Became an International Weapon of War
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the US took a number of extraordinary steps to cut Moscow out of the international financial system. The country immediately was hit with a slew of sanctions. It was cut off from the SWIFT payment system and it even had its dollar reserves seized. Prior to that, in 2021, the US took the rare step of seizing dollar reserves from Afghanistan's central bank after the Taliban's re-emergence to power. So how does the US control who gets to hold and transact in US dollars? Where did this power come from? What are the limits to the US policing of its own currency? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Bloomberg Senior Reporter Saleha Mohsin, author of the new book, Paper Soldiers: How the Weaponization of the Dollar Changed the World Order. We discuss the buildup of this tremendous financial power and also what it means for the dollar's status as a reserve currency going forward.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Why the UAE Is Pumping $35 Billion Into Egypt
The United Arab Emirates recently unveiled a stunning $35 billion investment in Egypt, snapping up development rights in an area on the Mediterranean coast. The announcement has since paved the way for Egypt to float its currency, easing a currency crisis that's been going on for years now and paving the way for an even bigger bailout from the IMF. But why exactly is the UAE pumping roughly 7% of its GDP into Egypt? What does the deal say about politics in the Middle East region? And what does it mean for the flow of petrodollars — the vast amount of money generated by the Gulf's oil income — in the global financial system? On this episode, we speak to Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist at Bloomberg Economics and the co-author of a new Bloomberg News Big Take about the UAE's huge investment. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Industrial Policy and the Forgotten Side of Alexander Hamilton
Thanks to the blockbuster musical, Alexander Hamilton has become a modern cultural icon. He's known as an architect of the federal system, building out a strong government with the capacity for both borrowing and spending. But there's another side of his vision that doesn't get as much attention, and that's his belief in the importance of state-directed investment to build out a domestic manufacturing industry. Basically, he was an early advocate for industrial policy. Given that the US is currently in a phase of building out domestic manufacturing capacity in various areas, it's time to go back and look at the history of these efforts in the US. We speak with Christian Parenti, a professor at John Jay College in New York, and the author of Radical Hamilton: Economic Lessons from a Misunderstood Founder, about this other side of Hamilton, and the economic context in which he developed this vision.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Why We're Now Living in The Golden Age of Snack Food
Want some Doritos? For years, you might have only been able to get one or two snack chip flavors. But right now on Amazon, you can find numerous varieties, from barbecue to nacho cheese, spicy sweet chili, or Late Night Loaded Taco. And this is really just scratching the surface. There are now dozens of flavors of Blue Diamond almonds, including blueberry, smokehouse, toasted coconut, sriracha, habanero BBQ, and wasabi and soy. So how did this happen? It turns out that some of it is a tech story. Thanks to breakthroughs in automation at both the plant and warehouse level, companies are able to create and ship more varieties than ever before. On this episode, we speak with Ryan Harlan, the director of business development at the E Tech Group, about the rapid changes in the industry over the last decade and how that turned into so many more consumer offerings.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Moderna's CFO on How to Allocate Capital in Big Pharma
The pharmaceutical space is characterized by extreme uncertainty. You never know what drugs are going to pan out. The lead time for development is extremely long. Market size is inherently unknowable. And the regulatory and pricing climate is constantly changing. So, how does a company decide where to invest its cash? On this episode, we speak with Moderna's chief financial officer, Jamey Mock, about how he views the problem. He explains the process by which the vaccine maker chooses which bets to make, how changing fortunes within the stock market affect corporate decision-making and the role of the government in accelerating progress and de-risking investment.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Lots More on Why Japanese Stocks Are Surging
Japanese stocks are suddenly soaring, with the Nikkei 225 hitting an all-time high this week after decades of languishing. Warren Buffett has been upping his stakes in Japanese companies and activist investors are taking an interest in the market for the first time in decades. And while all these dramatic headlines might seem to be coming out of nowhere, the road to Japan's big corporate comeback has arguably been years in the making. On this episode of Lots More, we speak with Travis Lundy, a Japan markets expert and special situations analyst who publishes on SmartKarma. He walks us through the history of Japan Inc. and how we got to this point. We discuss just how investor-friendly have Japanese companies actually become, what specific examples are we seeing of return-focused strategies, and what seems to be driving the change.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.