Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.
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Mark Bergen on Apple's Threat to the Online Ad Industry
After years of basically printing money, the big online Internet behemoths are starting to stumble for various reasons. There's the macro slowdowns. New competition. And just basic threats to the way they do business. One major change has come from Apple, which has used its device dominance to curtail how apps can collect information on users, making targeting harder than it used to be. On this episode we speak to Bloomberg reporter Mark Bergen, the author of Like, Comment, Subscribe: Inside YouTube's Chaotic Rise to World Domination, about the difficult challenges facing the industry. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Hyun Song Shin Explains Why This Dollar Shock Is So Unique
It's no secret that a strong US dollar causes the rest of the world pain, but the impact of this year's rally is shaping up to be a bit different than previous episodes of dollar strength. Hyun Song Shin is the Economic Adviser and Head of Research for the Bank for International Settlements, which has just published a bulletin outlining why this particular dollar cycle is so unique. Shin has also done a ton of previous academic research on this exact topic — examining what happens to global trade and business investment when the dollar hits its highs. In this conversation, we talk to him about the impact of the dollar rally, what could stop it and what policymakers around the world can do to cope.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
A Midwest Drought Is Creating a Supply Chain Crisis on the Mississippi River
The Midwest has been gripped by drought this year and water levels on the Mississippi River have fallen to their lowest marks in decades. That's bad news for farmers growing crops and for anyone trying to actually move those crops down the river to buyers. On this episode, we speak with grains expert and president of Ostebur & Associates, Ben Scholl, about the latest supply chain snarl in the US. We also speak with Mercury Group CEO Anton Posner and President Margo Brock about the important role that the Mississippi plays in the global supply chain. They walk us through the potential impact on a number of commodities — including steel, coal and other vital resources — and why the disruption might reverberate for some time to come.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This Is The Legal Mess Now Facing the Trucking Industry
When people think about the so-called 'gig economy' they probably first think about Uber. But truck drivers are arguably the original gig workers. And driving a truck is one of the biggest professions in the US. So how should laws designed to protect the rights of gig workers apply to the trucking industry? And what do truck drivers actually want? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Rachel Premack, the editorial director at Freightwaves and the author of the MODES newsletter, to understand the legal ambiguities and how they relate to deregulation efforts that are multiple decades old.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
A Broken Market Is Causing Mortgage Rates to Surge
US mortgage rates have jumped to a two-decade high, with the average 30-year home loan now running above 7%. Of course, this makes sense. The Federal Reserve is raising benchmark interest rates and that's supposed to translate into a tightening of financial conditions, which includes housing credit. But the jump in mortgage rates far exceeds the increase in benchmarks, with the difference between average mortgage rates and the yield on equivalent US Treasuries at its highest on record. So what's going on? On this episode, we speak with Guillermo Roditi Dominguez, managing director at New River Investments, about what's happening deep in the market for mortgage-backed bonds to make rates surge this much. As he describes it, a sea change is helping to keep borrowing rates extra high.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This Is What the US Just Did to China on Semiconductors
Earlier this month, the Biden administration unveiled a new set of restrictions on exporting semiconductors and related technology to China. The actions are seen as a significant escalation of an ongoing effort to constrain China's domestic chip ambitions. But semiconductor diplomacy and limitations on their export have existed almost since the industry was born. So what are the effects of these new actions? How severe are they? And to what degree do they actually set back China's efforts to develop its own technology? On this episode, we speak to Chris Miller, a professor at the Fletcher School and the author of the new book Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology. He explains the significance of the move and puts it into historical context.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
How the Alberta NDP Competes In One of Canada's Most Conservative Provinces
Alberta is one of Canada's most conservative provinces, with an economy and culture that might be compared to Texas. However despite this lean, the Alberta NDP, a social-democratic party, has been able to find electoral success. That may be owed to where the party deviates from other left-of-center parties — namely its more friendly stance towards the oil and gas industry, which is crucial to the Alberta economy. In this episode, we speak to party leader Rachel Notley, who served as Alberta premier from 2015 through 2019, before returning to the opposition. She talks about how the party views the oil and gas industry and how it fits in with maintaining climate commitments.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Nouriel Roubini Predicts a Crisis 'Worse' Than the 1970s
Nouriel Roubini is known for his bearish prognostications. And unfortunately, he still doesn't see any good news on the horizon. In fact, things are going to get much worse, says the famous economist and author of the new book "MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them." He believes that due to a rolling series of supply shocks, some of which are still unfolding, we'll have a severe downturn before we get relief from inflation. Unlike the 1970s he says, high levels of private sector debt will make it harder to fight higher prices, and that central banks will reverse course as things start to break in financial markets. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Jigar Shah Just Became One of the Most Important Players in the Energy Transition
Jigar Shah is the director of the loan office at the Department of Energy. For years, this division has had a modest amount of money, which it used to provide financing to promising projects in energy technology. With the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, the loan office now has hundreds of billions of dollars at its disposal in order to build up US energy supply and accelerate the shift to renewables. We talked Jigar about how he plans to scale up his office and deploy that money in a productive way. Recorded on September 7th, 2022.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Dan Wang On the Extraordinary Moment for China's Party Congress
The Chinese government's biggest political gathering comes at a time of numerous challenges.Next week will see a major gathering of China's top officials known as the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. This event only happens twice every decade, and this particular Congress is happening at an extraordinary time for both the Chinese government and the country. Not only are officials grappling with the impact of strict pandemic-related restrictions known as Covid Zero, but they're also facing turmoil in the economy and the real estate sector. At the same time, external pressures are picking up, with the US recently imposing sweeping curbs on the way semiconductor companies do business with China. So what's on the agenda for this major political event and what can it tell us about the future direction of the Chinese economy? Dan Wang, China technology analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, joins us to discuss.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This Is What 7% Mortgages Will Do To the Housing Market
Thanks to the surge in mortgage rates, we've seen a historic collapse in mortgage affordability. New homebuyers are facing a massive sticker shock relative to what they could have paid just six months ago. So does this mean that house prices are due for a crash? On this episode of Odd Lots, we speak with Morgan Stanley housing strategist Jim Egan about what comes next. Egan argues that while high mortgage rates will discourage buyers, there won't be a significant unlocking of supply, since very few people will be forced to sell. It will be housing activity that sees the biggest change.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Toby Nangle on What We Just Learned From Gilt Market Madness
UK financial assets just experienced once-in-a-generation type moves in the wake of the government's mini-budget announcement. Not only did both gilts and the pound sell off dramatically, they rebounded just as dramatically after intervention from the Bank of England. What does it all mean? And how did pension accounting contribute to the massive volatility? On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we spoke with Toby Nangle, an economics and markets commentator, who spent several years running asset allocation at Columbia Threadneedle. He explains why we saw such a dramatic move and what the whole thing taught us about market structure.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
What Is Really Going On With Rent and Healthcare Inflation?
One of the biggest drivers of inflation is rent. Arguably, it's the whole ballgame right now. If rent growth stays firm, it's hard to see inflation getting back to the Federal Reserve's intended target anytime soon. If it rolls over, then maybe that will allow the Fed to breathe a little bit easier. But signals about the future direction of rents are mixed. While the government data is red hot, various private surveys do show some easing. On this episode, we speak with Omair Sharif, the founder of Inflation Insights, who walks us through rent prices and how the numbers are gathered. He also discusses a key change coming to the measured price of healthcare that will likely be a significant drag on inflation in the year ahead.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Marko Papic on What Markets Got Wrong About Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
When Russia invaded Ukraine, there was a widespread expectation of a surge in prices for numerous commodities. That happened initially, but by and large things have not played out the way many investors would have anticipated. So what did markets get wrong? And what are they getting wrong now? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Marko Papic, a geopolitical expert and the chief strategist at Clocktower Group. He offers his view that the war is entering a stage of stasis and stability that will persist for some time to come. He also spoke about why China continues to pursue a Covid Zero strategy, despite the seemingly high cost to the economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Pierre Andurand on What Europe Needs to Do This Winter
Europe is facing an energy crisis and there are some dire predictions about how it will deal with the upcoming winter, when demand for electricity and heating oil are expected to surge. But commodities trader Pierre Andurand sees a path for Europe to survive without Russia's fuel. He suggests that LNG imports can make up a significant amount of lost Russian oil and gas, while simple actions like turning down the thermostat and turning off the lights, can make a big difference to the region's overall supply and demand imbalance. He also talks about the "broken" oil market — where prices may move by $10 on seemingly little news — and how that's impacted his own trading. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.