Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.
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Bridgewater's Greg Jensen on AI, Inflation and What Markets Are Getting Wrong
Every industry is trying to figure out just how AI or Large Language Models can be used to do business. But Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, has already been at it for a long time. For years, it has explored AI and adjacent technologies in order to analyze data, test theories, develop novel investment strategies and help its employees make better decisions. But how does it actually use the tech in practice? And what's next going forward? On this episode, we speak with co-CIO Greg Jensen about both the possibilities and limitations of these advances. We also discuss markets and macro, and why he believes that investors are still too optimistic about the Federal Reserve's ability to get inflation back to target. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Zoltan Pozsar on His Next Big Move and the Coming Monetary Divorce
Zoltan Pozsar has built a reputation for covering the intricacies of money markets. For the past eight years, he published those insights as a strategist at Credit Suisse. But in this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Pozsar reveals his next career move following his departure from the Swiss bank earlier this year. He also gives us an update on his Bretton Woods III thesis, or the idea that the global financial system is going through a "monetary divorce" from US dollar hegemony and becoming more multi-polar. He also gives us his take on the recent banking crisis and what it means for global funding markets going forward.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
What Ben McKenzie Learned When He Started Investigating Crypto
When the pandemic struck in 2020, the actor Ben McKenzie (who you might know from The OC and Gotham) had a lot of time on his hands. And like a lot of people, he suddenly got interested in crypto when an old friend of his pushed him to buy some Bitcoin. But unlike a lot of other people, McKenzie didn't rush out to buy it. Instead, he dusted off his old economics degree and decided to learn about how the industry really works. And what he learned shocked him. So he (along with his co-author Jacob Silverman) spent the last few years writing a new book titled Easy Money: Cryptocurrency, Casino Capitalism, and The Golden Age Of Fraud. In an interview conducted live at the Bloomberg Invest summit, McKenzie explains why he thinks the industry is rotten and corrupt and designed in a way to enrich a small group of insiders at the expense of a large, misinformed and desperate public. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
James Montier Explains Why Corporate Profits Keep Going Up
More than a decade ago, GMO strategist James Montier published a paper predicting that corporate profit margins were destined to come down from "nosebleed" levels. Fast forward to 2023, and it's clear that hasn't happened as profit margins remain far above their long-term average. On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Montier explains what he got wrong back in 2012, why corporate profits have remained so stubbornly high, and what this could mean for stock valuations now. He also discusses the ongoing debate over whether high corporate earnings are fueling inflation, as well as revisiting the work of economist Michael Kalecki.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Why Saudi Arabia Is Spending Millions on Soccer Stars
Saudi Arabia has been spending hundreds of millions of dollars snapping up international soccer stars in recent months, including legendary players like Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema, to boost the rosters of its Saudi Pro League. It's not the first time we've seen a country spend a lot of money to try to build up a domestic sports league, but it does have some key differences to previous attempts like we've seen in China, or in the US with Major League Soccer. For a start, the kingdom is spending a lot of money, opening up thorny questions about competition worldwide and Financial Fair Play rules in Europe, specifically. More importantly, it's also doing this at a governmental scale, with the kingdom's sovereign wealth fund and state-owned oil giant taking active roles. So what exactly is Saudi Arabia trying to accomplish and will it succeed? And what does this huge influx of money mean for soccer in the rest of the world? On this episode, we speak with Michael Caley and Mike Goodman, co-hosts of the Double Pivot Podcast, to discuss the big business of football and why turning a profit is not always the primary goal.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This Is How Finance and Banking Worked Before Computers
We're used to thinking of modern finance as practically synonymous with computers. Banks are basically just big collections of Excel spreadsheets, keeping track of who owes what to whom. And most trading nowadays is done by clicking a button on a screen. But how did all this work before we had this type of technology? And what can previous technological revolutions tell us about the direction of new ones, such as the potential deployment of artificial intelligence? In this episode, we speak with Anne Murphy, history professor at the University of Portsmouth and the author of Virtuous Bankers: A Day in the Life of the Eighteenth-Century Bank of England, as well as John Handel, postdoctoral fellow at the University of Virginia McIntire School of Commerce. They walk us through just how banking and finance was done in the days before computers, telephones and even the telegraph.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Josh Younger on the Surprising Origins of Eurodollars and Petrodollars
De-dollarization is all the rage right now, with lots of talk about whether the US currency will be able to maintain its dominant status in the global financial system. But regardless of what happens in the future, it's worth asking how we got to this point originally. How is it that the dollar came to dominate not just global trade flows but also became the currency of choice for things like buying oil? And why are there large pools of eurodollars sitting outside the United States? In this episode, we speak with Josh Younger, formerly of JPMorgan Chase and now a senior adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, about the surprising policy decisions that went into creating eurodollars and petrodollars, and why they matter now.See omny.fm/listener for privacy information.
Steve Eisman on Banks, AI and His Next Big Bet
Steve Eisman is known for having bet against the housing market prior to the Great Financial Crisis in a trade immortalized by Michael Lewis in The Big Short. So what is he betting on now? In a special live episode of Odd Lots, recorded at the Bloomberg Invest summit, the Neuberger Berman portfolio manager discusses the recent banking turmoil (he thinks it's contained), the boom in anything related to AI, and his current bets on US manufacturing and infrastructure. He also talks about investing in rewiring the nation's electricity grid and why he thinks this theme has years left to play out.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Eyeball-Scanning Plan Designed to Save Us From AI
There are all kinds of societal concerns emerging out of the rise of artificial intelligence. Will it put us all out of work? Will fraudsters be able to use deepfakes — technology that can replicate our images and our voices — to scam us? We're in uncharted territory and nobody knows for sure how society will negotiate these risks. While many people are familiar with ChatGPT, its founder Sam Altman also co-founded Worldcoin, which aims to mitigate these risks. Enter: The Orb, an eyeball-scanning device that could provide everyone with a unique personal identifier. Think a global social security number, except you never have to share what it is with anyone. On this episode, we speak with Alex Blania, the CEO and co-founder of Tools For Humanity, the developer behind the Orb and the Worldcoin project, on his company's vision for how this tech can be used for things like proving one's humanness or collecting a Universal Basic Income in a world where AI predominates. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This Is What Happens When Governments Build Software
There's a lot of frustration about the government's ability to build things in the US. Subways. Bridges. High-speed rail. Electricity transmission. But there's another crucial area where the public sector often struggles, and that is software. We saw it with the infamous rollout of Obamacare. We see it in the UX of the Treasury Direct website. And we saw it in the way state unemployment insurance systems broke during the pandemic. So why is it so hard for the public sector to build and maintain software? On this episode we speak with Jennifer Pahlka, the founder and former executive director of Code for America and author of the new book Recoding America: Why Government Is Failing in the Digital Age and How We Can Do Better, as well as Dave Guarino, who recently left the Department of Labor after working on upgrading the unemployment insurance system. Both have a long history of working on public sector software systems and they explain why the problem is so tricky.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Brad Setser on How World Trade Changed In the Last Three Years
A lot has happened since we last spoke to Brad Setser in April 2020, towards the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. For a start, Setser was appointed to be a trade advisor in the Biden administration during a period of immense disruption. There was lots of talk about a potential reshuffling of the way the global economy works, and things like nearshoring and deglobalization. But some big predictions for the way world trade will function haven't come to fruition. For instance, the US is still running a current account deficit and China is still running a current account surplus. So in this episode, Setser returns to discuss what has and hasn't changed in global trade in the last three years. He's left the Biden administration and returned to the Council on Foreign Relations, where he's a senior fellow. He talks about everything from the US-China trade imbalance to the impact of sanctions on the world economy to China's electric vehicle and plane production, plus the future of the dollar.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Isabella Weber on the Big Rethink of Inflation
Earlier this year, Odd Lots talked about the idea of companies taking advantage of bottlenecks and other disruptions to raise their prices. Since then, the notion of this type of corporate-led inflation has burst into the public discourse with central bankers and politicians all taking a closer look. But how does this type of inflation differ from more traditional economic interpretations of prices, and what are the implications for monetary and economic policy? In this episode, we talk once again to Isabella Weber, the UMass-Amherst economics professor who dubbed this phenomenon "sellers' inflation" in a paper published earlier this year. She talks about how the way we think about inflation is changing and her own experience of seeing public attitudes shift in real time.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Jim Grant Sees an Era of Higher Rates That Could Last For Years
If you think interest rates seem high right now, you might be operating with too short of a perspective. For a longer-term perspective, you'd want to talk to someone like Jim Grant. On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, the founder and editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer and a long-time financial commentator talks to us about why we're at the beginning of a longer-term trend of higher rates that could last decades. He argues that investors will struggle to shake off years of "buy the dip" behavior, a ZIRP mentality, and a misplaced faith in the Federal Reserve. We also discuss what it means for market behavior today.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Counterfeiting Scandals Keep Slamming the Commodities Market
Earlier this year, it emerged that the London Metals Exchange had been holding a bunch of bags filled with stones instead of the nickel needed to back trades for major commodities players, including Trafigura. Before that, commodities trader Mercuria was given painted rocks instead of the copper it was supposed to take delivery of. In short, the commodities world is no stranger to fraud. But what is it about the business of trading, moving and storing commodities that makes it so susceptible to scandal? In this episode, we speak to repeat Odd Lots guests and commodities collateral specialists Mercury Group CEO Anton Posner and President Margo Brock, about some recent episodes of counterfeiting in commodities world, why they seem to keep happening, and what could be done to prevent further instances from occurring.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This Is How We'll Know If the CHIPS Act Is Working
The US government is spending billions of dollars to build out state-of-the-art domestic semiconductor manufacturing capacity. But spending money is no guarantee of success. In fact, there are already worries that the CHIPS Act passed by the Biden administration isn't succeeding, due to various roadblocks, speedbumps and unforced errors. So what are the odds that it will pay off? And what should we be watching for as evidence of its efficacy? On this episode of the podcast, we spoke with Dan Wang, technology analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics and Adam Ozimek, chief economist at the Economic Innovation Group. This episode was recorded live at Decades, Adam's bowling alley in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, during the #EconTwitterIRL event in April.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.