Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.
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Pot Lots Part 3: Righting the Wrongs of the Past
Marijuana has been legalized in a number of places in the US now, but what New York is trying to do with its legal weed market is somewhat unique. Not only is the state trying to use legalized weed to raise tax revenue and create a new industry with lots of new jobs, it’s also trying to use its legalized cannabis market to rectify some of the wrongs of the past. In the third and final episode of this special Odd Lots series, we speak to those who have been affected by historic attitudes and policies towards drugs, and some of the state officials who are now trying to right these past injustices. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Pot Lots Part 2: The Business of Big Cannabis
In some respects, selling legalized cannabis should be like many other consumer goods business. You make a product people recognize and then sell it to as many of them as possible. But even if attitudes towards pot -- and the laws that govern it -- are changing in the US, there are still a ton of issues facing this new market. In the second episode of this three-part Odd Lots series, we take a closer look at the business of big cannabis. How are multi-state operators working out in places that legalized medical and recreational marijuana years ago? What are the opportunities and challenges of this new industry? And what do they say about the future of the New York market?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Pot Lots Part 1: Birth of a Marijuana Market
New York City has long been seen as a holy grail for the legal weed industry, with millions of potential customers. And last year New York state started handing out licenses for its first recreational cannabis shops, the culmination of a series of moves that have seen marijuana decriminalized after decades of being illegal. So how is this new legal weed market supposed to work in a city with a long and complicated history with drugs, and what are the considerations going into its creation? In this first episode of a special Odd Lots series, we take a deep dive into what's going on with the legalized marijuana market in New York. We’ll spend three episodes exploring what the birth of this market looks like, how these businesses are setting up, and finally how New York is trying to address the social inequities of the past. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
So Much of the World Economy Has Been Going in Reverse
Over time, we expect the world to get richer. Yes, there are disruptions and setbacks (and we have seen several large ones in the last few years) but the expectation is to see growth and an increase in material wealth. And yet for years, many countries around the world have seen stagnation or outright reversal — particularly once you exclude East Asia. On this episode of Odd Lots, we speak with Henry Williams and David Oks, the authors of a recent piece in the journal American Affairs about what they call The Long, Slow Death of Global Development. They argue that traditional development models, particularly those built around manufacturing, have failed much of the world, with little prospect of improvement anytime soon.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Eight Months In, What Is Happening With Biden's CHIPS Act?
In August of last year, the White House signed the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, a bipartisan effort to bring more advanced semiconductor manufacturing onto US shores. Of course, it already has plenty of critics. There are concerns that the bill is being larded up with red tape, or non-core progressive priorities, that will undermine the bill. On this episode, we speak to two leaders playing key roles in the act's implementation. Mike Schmidt, director of the CHIPS Program Office, and Todd Fisher, the program's chief investment officer, join us to talk about the act's goals, what's been achieved so far, and why they believe it can succeed.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
What Commercial Real Estate Stress Means for Banks and Bond Funds
In the last month or so, two macro risks have become top of mind for investors. One is the stability of regional banks. The other is the weakness in the commercial real estate market. On some level, they're separate stories, but they're also linked, since regional banks tend to do more commercial real estate lending than larger, national banks. Of course, the links are complicated. CRE is not a monolith — and banks are just one source of financing for CRE projects, alongside private credit funds, insurance companies and other sources of capital. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Jim Costello, chief economist for real assets at MSCI, about what to watch for.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Nassim Taleb on What Bitcoiners, Anti-Vaxxers and Deadlift Maxis All Get Wrong
Nassim Taleb has never been shy about expressing his viewpoints on a wide range of topics. But lately he's been getting into verbal tussles with people who have long looked up to his wisdom. Whether it's Bitcoiners, venture capitalists, deadlifters, or anti-vaxxers, many people within these communities have admired his philosophy of antifragility. So why has he taken to arguing with them on Twitter? What exactly are they getting wrong about his ideas? And for that matter, why has he himself gotten into cycling lately? In this wide ranging conversation, the author of books such as Antifragile, The Black Swan, and Fooled by Randomness talks about all these topics and more — including how to think about reducing tail risk in one's own life. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The NYC Landlord Who Says the "Golden Age" of Being a Landlord Is Over
For the most part, being a landlord, particularly in a major city, has been a good business to be in. Rents historically just go up — as do property prices. And there are multiple other ways to make money, as well. Plus, historically, politicians didn’t care much about the rights of renters, focusing much more on the concerns of homeowners. But the politics might be changing. And if the politics are changing, then the economics may change, too. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Ben Carlos Thypin, a residential and commercial landlord in New York City, who tells us the golden age of being a landlord is over and why he plans to get out of residential real estate completely.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Matt King Sees a $1 Trillion Liquidity Drain Heading for Markets
One of the big mysteries in markets right now is why risk assets rallied so strongly into the new year even as policymakers were adamant that they would continue to go hard on inflation by raising rates. Sure, there have been some recent signs of a "soft" or even "no landing" scenario, but a lot of the price action seemed pretty dramatic, with investors dashing back to meme and tech stocks that were beaten down last year. Matt King, Citigroup strategist and Odd Lots favorite, has one explanation for the recent "dash for trash." He argues that even though many central banks around the world have announced that they're winding down several years of extraordinarily loose monetary policies, they've actually been adding liquidity to the financial system in recent months — almost $1 trillion of it. Now he says that extra liquidity is going away and it isn't at all clear if private businesses and investment will fill the gap.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Betsy Cohen On Tech Investing and How SVB Failed Banking 101
The tech world is in a precarious moment. Valuations are down. The IPO window seems shut. SPACs are a thing of the past. And the industry's pre-eminent bank just went bust. So what now? Where are the opportunities and what should people look for? On this episode, we speak with Betsy Cohen, the veteran dealmaker, SPAC innovator, and the co-founder and chairman of investment firm Cohen Circle. We discuss the state of the tech market and how Silicon Valley Bank failed at Banking 101.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Is It Time For Public Checking Accounts at the Fed?
When Silicon Valley Bank failed, the government stepped in and guaranteed that all accounts — even those well above the FDIC threshold for deposit insurance — would be made whole. So now people are wondering whether all accounts at every bank are implicitly guaranteed, regardless of their size. But if they are, then what is the point of private, for-profit retail banking? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Saule Omarova, a professor at Cornell Law School. She had been nominated by President Biden to head the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, but was forced to withdraw due to fierce opposition from the banking lobby. That opposition was based, in part, on her endorsement of public checking accounts at the Federal Reserve. But what was a seemingly "out there" view a year ago, is now firmly within the Overton Window of political possibilities. On this episode, we discuss the SVB disaster, what it means for banking, and the case for a public option.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Where Stress Is Showing in the $20 Trillion Commercial Real Estate Market
Markets are suddenly on edge due to strains in the financial system. But banks aren't the only source of stress. Pockets of the commercial real estate market — which is worth around $20 trillion — are showing cracks as well. Higher interest rates are one factor, but also a lot of commercial office space is still not at pre-Covid capacity levels, putting pressure on income. So where are the trouble spots? And who is holding the bag? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Rich Hill, head of real estate strategy & research at Cohen & Steers, about the state of the market.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
What the Dramatic Boom in Zero-Day Options Means for Stocks
Zero- and one-day options give investors the ability to bet on the daily moves of the S&P 500. In recent months, both big institutional investors and retail traders have gotten in on the action, creating a boom in trading volumes of these short-lived contracts and sparking an intense debate over their effect on the market. So what exactly is driving their popularity and why are some Wall Street analysts so divided on whether such options will cause a rerun of the “volmageddon” that we saw back in early 2018 and that caused a big drop in stocks? Nomura Securities International Inc. strategist Charlie McElligott walks us through these new trading contracts, explaining how they work, why people are snapping them up, and what their impact on the market could be.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Regulatory Blunder That Gave Us the Silicon Valley Bank Disaster
Whenever a major financial institution collapses and needs a bailout, it's easy to say, "Where were the regulators?" But that's only a useful question if you can pinpoint the specific regulatory choices that led to any particular situation. So what caused Silicon Valley Bank to implode? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Columbia Law School professor Lev Menand, who discusses the defanging of bank supervisors in the run-up to this fiasco. With proper oversight, someone might have caught and put a stop to the unique set of risks the bank was taking. But without proper oversight, they were encouraged to go for all-out growth, regardless of the ultimate social cost. We also discuss legislative changes over time that led to this buildup of risk.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Dan Davies On What Brought Down Silicon Valley Bank
Silicon Valley bank collapsed at record speed. And the world is still trying to figure out what went wrong? How did a bank with a strong history, a strong brand, and a fairly conservative investment portfolio go belly up so fast? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Dan Davies, a Managing Director of Frontline Associates, who previously worked as a bank analyst. He explains why the bank's customer base turned out to be so much more flighty than expected, and why the bank reached for yield buying long-dated Treasuries at a time of ultra-low interest rates. We discuss what to watch next, and why he's concerned that the initial salvo to stanch the bank run may not be enough.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.