Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.
What's Really Standing in the Way of a Nuclear Renaissance?
The US is taking a fresh look at nuclear power. After a dearth of construction, and de-commissioning of working nuclear plants, people are talking, yet again, about it as a source of steady, affordable, carbon-free electricity. But of course, nuclear has its drawbacks, particularly on the financial side, as new plants have been plagued by cost over-runs, contributing to utility bankruptcies. So what would need to happen to get the economics working again? On this episode we speak with Mark Nelson, the founder of Radiant Energy Group, to discuss the state of the industry, the state of the technology, and what it would take to bring nuclear back into the mix.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This Is What an 8% Mortgage Means For the Housing Market
Mortgage rates have surged over the last couple of years. But surprisingly to some, actual home prices in the US have been resilient. This has created a historic shock to affordability, with a typical monthly payment on a home purchase soaring. But how long can this go on? Particularly as rates continue to rise, with a 30-year fixed rate mortgage near 8% now, we speak with Morgan Stanley housing strategist, and past Odd Lots guest, Jim Egan, about the impact of this rate environment. He explains why we may be at the limit to how far house prices can rise, and why at this point, the key variable is whether more supply comes onto the market.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
How An Old Banking Regulation May Have Driven The 1970s Inflation
There remains a lot of anxiety over whether inflation in the US will gather steam all over again. Part of this worry stems from the fact that there were multiple bouts of inflation in the 1970s, which was the last time the US had a serious inflation problem. So to understand whether our current environment bears similar risks to that of the 70s, it's important to understand what actually drove inflation during that period. On this episode, we speak with Itamar Drechsler, a finance professor at Penn's Wharton school. He argues that the banking regulation known as Reg Q impaired the transmission of monetary policy, and resulted in a perverse dynamic via which rate hikes served to impair the supply side of the economy, rather than cool the demand side.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Lots More With Dashiell Bennett
On this episode of Lots More, Tracy and Joe share their thoughts from the week, from a makeshift studio at a hotel in Hollywood. They’re joined by producer Dashiell Bennett, and talk about rates, Fed speak, the SBF trial and more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
NY's Cannabis Rollout Could Destroy a Legal Entrepreneur
When New York legalized recreational cannabis for adults, it didn't just want to fling the gates wide open for anyone to take part. Instead it specifically aimed to help out and give priority to individuals who were previously harmed by the war on drugs. However, more than two years after the law was signed, there are just a handful of legal, licensed shops. Meanwhile, there are thousands of un-licensed shops that proliferate across New York City. At the same time, red tape and legal challenges have hampered the efforts of those going down the legal, regulated path. On this episode, we speak with two entrepreneurs who are trying to go down the regulated path: Coss Marte and Alfredo Angueira of Conbud. They've spent over a million dollars getting ready to launch their dispensary in Manhattan's Lower East Side, but have been unable to actually open it on schedule due to various last minute glitches and legal challenges. We discuss what they've encountered in their efforts, and what it's been costing them to go down the legal path. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
JPMorgan's Jay Barry on the Big Selloff in Bonds
In the past week, the bond market has experienced a historic selloff. Yields on benchmark 10-year US Treasuries soared towards 4.9% while those on 30-year debt reached the highest since 2007. But the exact cause of these dramatic moves in the most important market in the world aren't entirely clear, with people looking at everything from the Federal Reserve's outlook for interest rates, to the the jump in the price of oil, or booming supply as the deficit expands, as well as more technical things like the term premium. So what's driving the selloff and how do we disaggregate interrelated things like supply and demand? How do you decompose longer-term and short-term factors feeding into the price of US Treasuries? What can stem the big moves? And what are investors saying about their appetite for US debt? We speak with Jay Barry, co-head of US interest rate strategy at JPMorgan Chase, about the big bond market selloff.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Jigar Shah on the Pathway to Clean, Cheap, and Abundant Energy
Jigar Shah is the head of the Loan Programs Office at the Department of Energy and thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act, he has hundreds of billions of dollars to lend to companies to accelerate the commercialization of clean energy technologies. The office has already been extremely active over the past year, and there's lots more to come. In this special episode of the podcast that was recorded live at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin, Texas, we discuss his office's strategy and what it will take to achieve the clean, cheap energy system that so many people want. We also discuss specific industries, including nuclear power, and what it will take to build momentum towards more deployment.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Lots More With Matt Boesler
This week on the Odd Lots podcast, we hosted two regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents: Tom Barkin of Richmond and Austan Goolsbee of the Chicago. So what did we learn from those conversations? And what are we watching for now with jobs and inflation in the US. On this week's Lots More, we speak with our colleague Matt Boesler, who covers the Fed for Bloomberg News, about all things macro. Plus, we answer some listener questions about our favorite technologies, podcasts we're listening to, and more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Austan Goolsbee on the 'Golden Path' to a Soft Landing
Can a soft landing be achieved? This is still a wide open question, given the highly uncertain macro environment. On the one hand, you have had a continued deceleration is most US inflation measures and the unemployment rate is below 4%. On the other hand, there are concerns over re-acceleration, more inflation, and a bond market where yields seem to be screaming higher day after day. On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Austan Goolsbee, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, who sees the possibility of, in his words, a "golden path" -- or the "mother of all soft landings." We discuss why and how it can be achieved, what the Fed can do to deliver a positive outcome, and what the market is telling us about the work that still needs to be done.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Fed's Tom Barkin On the Impact of Higher Interest Rates
The US economy has so far withstood the effects of higher interest rates a lot better than expected. Unemployment is still at historic lows, even while inflation has cooled and the Federal Reserve has hiked rates for about 18 months. That's not how things are supposed to work according to traditional economic theory. So what's going on? On this episode, we speak with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin about how he's viewing the impact of higher rates right now. He talks about what businesses are telling him about their plans, and what sectors of the economy could still feel the long and variable lag from tighter monetary policy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Lots More with Matt Levine and Mike Mackenzie
For those who can't get enough Odd Lots, we're now offering you... "Lots More." This new podcast show, appearing on Fridays, will see hosts Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal chatting with some of your favorite Odd Lots guests about the latest breaking news and the biggest themes on their minds in markets, finance and economics. Joe’s away for this episode. So Tracy gathers two of her favorite Bloomberg colleagues — Matt Levine and Mike Mackenzie — to talk about the basis trade that’s got regulators worried, plus the recent bond market selloff, reminiscences over Tokyo in the 1990s and much more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Real Pain From Rate Hikes May Still Be on the Way
The Federal Reserve has hiked rates in rapid fashion, yet the evidence of their impact is scarce. Inflation is still hot (though it has come down quite a bit.) The unemployment rate remains very low. And economic growth appears to be robust. So does this mean that higher rates aren't significant? Or could it be that their impact has simply yet to be felt, and that it's still coming. On this episode, our guest argues the latter case that due to lags, we really haven't felt the pain from rate hikes yet. Julia Coronado, is the founder, CEO and president of Macro Policy Perspectives, as well as a Clinical Associate Professor of Finance at the University of Texas McCombs School of Business. She argues that we really haven't felt the credit effects yet from higher rates, but that they're on the way. In particular, we discuss the delayed impact on commercial real estate and other areas of the economy where debt may have been termed out, but will eventually need refinancing.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Why the Degrowth Movement Is Having a Moment
When it comes to economics, there are a bunch of different schools to choose from, but pretty much all of them are focused on boosting growth. Except, that is, for the degrowth movement, which aims to refocus economics away from GDP. As more and more complaints about "late-stage capitalism" seem to be piling up, along with worries about the impact of rampant consumerism on the environment, is this the degrowth movement's time to shine? We speak with Noel King, the co-host of Vox's Today Explained podcast, about her new mini-series exploring discontent with the capitalist model. She explains the intellectual origins of the degrowth movement, why it's getting more attention now, and just what an economy that no longer prioritizes "growth at any cost" might look like.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Why Insurers Are Pulling Out of High-Risk Areas
This year has seen a spate of insurance companies announcing that they're leaving markets like Florida and California, citing the increased risk of natural disasters, such as floods and wildfires. Elsewhere, premiums for certain types of insurance are skyrocketing — yet many insurance companies can't seem to turn a profit in certain areas. Melanie Gall is the co-director of the Center for Emergency Management and Homeland Security at Arizona State University, and she also manages the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States, known as SHELDUS. In this episode, we talk to her about what's driving insurers away from certain markets, and what can still be done to protect businesses and homeowners from catastrophe.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Steven Rattner on the UAW Strike and the Challenges of Bidenomics
When the US auto industry needed a restructuring or bailout in 2009, the Obama administration tapped former banker and investor Steven Rattner to lead the effort. As the government's "car czar," he helped shape an agreement that saw the United Auto Workers accept significant concessions in order to preserve the financial stability of the big three American carmakers. Now the UAW is on strike, with an aim of reversing many of those concessions and gaining new benefits for their workers. So what can the UAW reasonably accomplish? How plausible are their asks? And can US industry remain competitive with higher labor costs? On this episode of Odd Lots, we speak with Rattner to get his take on the negotiations, the challenge of the energy transition on the incumbent automakers, and the goals of Bidenomics more broadly, as the administration seeks to boost domestic manufacturing in areas like EVs, batteries, and semiconductors.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.