Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.
Austan Goolsbee on the 'Golden Path' to a Soft Landing
Can a soft landing be achieved? This is still a wide open question, given the highly uncertain macro environment. On the one hand, you have had a continued deceleration is most US inflation measures and the unemployment rate is below 4%. On the other hand, there are concerns over re-acceleration, more inflation, and a bond market where yields seem to be screaming higher day after day. On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Austan Goolsbee, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, who sees the possibility of, in his words, a "golden path" -- or the "mother of all soft landings." We discuss why and how it can be achieved, what the Fed can do to deliver a positive outcome, and what the market is telling us about the work that still needs to be done.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Fed's Tom Barkin On the Impact of Higher Interest Rates
The US economy has so far withstood the effects of higher interest rates a lot better than expected. Unemployment is still at historic lows, even while inflation has cooled and the Federal Reserve has hiked rates for about 18 months. That's not how things are supposed to work according to traditional economic theory. So what's going on? On this episode, we speak with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin about how he's viewing the impact of higher rates right now. He talks about what businesses are telling him about their plans, and what sectors of the economy could still feel the long and variable lag from tighter monetary policy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Lots More with Matt Levine and Mike Mackenzie
For those who can't get enough Odd Lots, we're now offering you... "Lots More." This new podcast show, appearing on Fridays, will see hosts Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal chatting with some of your favorite Odd Lots guests about the latest breaking news and the biggest themes on their minds in markets, finance and economics. Joe’s away for this episode. So Tracy gathers two of her favorite Bloomberg colleagues — Matt Levine and Mike Mackenzie — to talk about the basis trade that’s got regulators worried, plus the recent bond market selloff, reminiscences over Tokyo in the 1990s and much more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Real Pain From Rate Hikes May Still Be on the Way
The Federal Reserve has hiked rates in rapid fashion, yet the evidence of their impact is scarce. Inflation is still hot (though it has come down quite a bit.) The unemployment rate remains very low. And economic growth appears to be robust. So does this mean that higher rates aren't significant? Or could it be that their impact has simply yet to be felt, and that it's still coming. On this episode, our guest argues the latter case that due to lags, we really haven't felt the pain from rate hikes yet. Julia Coronado, is the founder, CEO and president of Macro Policy Perspectives, as well as a Clinical Associate Professor of Finance at the University of Texas McCombs School of Business. She argues that we really haven't felt the credit effects yet from higher rates, but that they're on the way. In particular, we discuss the delayed impact on commercial real estate and other areas of the economy where debt may have been termed out, but will eventually need refinancing.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Why the Degrowth Movement Is Having a Moment
When it comes to economics, there are a bunch of different schools to choose from, but pretty much all of them are focused on boosting growth. Except, that is, for the degrowth movement, which aims to refocus economics away from GDP. As more and more complaints about "late-stage capitalism" seem to be piling up, along with worries about the impact of rampant consumerism on the environment, is this the degrowth movement's time to shine? We speak with Noel King, the co-host of Vox's Today Explained podcast, about her new mini-series exploring discontent with the capitalist model. She explains the intellectual origins of the degrowth movement, why it's getting more attention now, and just what an economy that no longer prioritizes "growth at any cost" might look like.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Why Insurers Are Pulling Out of High-Risk Areas
This year has seen a spate of insurance companies announcing that they're leaving markets like Florida and California, citing the increased risk of natural disasters, such as floods and wildfires. Elsewhere, premiums for certain types of insurance are skyrocketing — yet many insurance companies can't seem to turn a profit in certain areas. Melanie Gall is the co-director of the Center for Emergency Management and Homeland Security at Arizona State University, and she also manages the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States, known as SHELDUS. In this episode, we talk to her about what's driving insurers away from certain markets, and what can still be done to protect businesses and homeowners from catastrophe.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Steven Rattner on the UAW Strike and the Challenges of Bidenomics
When the US auto industry needed a restructuring or bailout in 2009, the Obama administration tapped former banker and investor Steven Rattner to lead the effort. As the government's "car czar," he helped shape an agreement that saw the United Auto Workers accept significant concessions in order to preserve the financial stability of the big three American carmakers. Now the UAW is on strike, with an aim of reversing many of those concessions and gaining new benefits for their workers. So what can the UAW reasonably accomplish? How plausible are their asks? And can US industry remain competitive with higher labor costs? On this episode of Odd Lots, we speak with Rattner to get his take on the negotiations, the challenge of the energy transition on the incumbent automakers, and the goals of Bidenomics more broadly, as the administration seeks to boost domestic manufacturing in areas like EVs, batteries, and semiconductors.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Morgan Housel on the New Way We Think About Money
When generations undergo any kind of collective life-changing event, it shapes how people think about money -- and how they think about spending and investing. Past upheavals like the Great Depression, the World Wars, the inflation of the 1970s, and Weimar-era hyperinflation, had profound effects on the cohorts that lived through them. So what will be the effect of the pandemic on current generations? And what is the combined effect on people who lived through the pandemic, the Great Financial Crisis, and 9/11 in a span of less than 20 years? On this episode, we speak to Morgan Housel, personal finance expert and author of the bestselling book The Psychology of Money, on the lasting impact from these recent societal disruptions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Oaktree's Wayne Dahl on Credit Markets Right Now
In theory, the Federal Reserve operates by tightening the supply of credit. Or at least making it more close. Yet so far, despite the rate hikes, the economy has remained resilient. And credit spreads have remained surprisingly tight. So what's going on? Where are the risks? Why are some pockets of the credit markets showing weakness, while others are rock solid? On this episode of the podcast, which was recorded live at the Future Proof conference in Huntington Beach, California, we speak with Wayne Dahl, a managing director and investment risk officer at Oaktree Capital Management, to get a broader lay of the land.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Lots More With Neil Dutta
For those who can't get enough, Odd Lots, we're now offering you... "Lots More." This new podcast show, appearing on Fridays, will see hosts Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal chatting with some of your favorite Odd Lots guests about the latest breaking news and the biggest themes on their minds in markets, finance and economics. On this inaugural episode, they're joined by Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research to talk inflation, a possible government shutdown, the risk of a Federal Reserve policy error, and just how high bond yields can get. Are we getting a soft-landing or an inflationary boom? And why do some investors find the doom-and-gloom philosophy so appealing?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Senator Chris Coons on How to Fix Our Response to Avian Flu
Last year, consumers around the country experienced an explosion in the price of eggs, in part due to an outbreak of avian flu. Since then, egg prices have come back down to more normal levels. But what did we learn from that outbreak? What could we do better? And how can we mitigate further the economic impact of such waves? On this episode, we speak with Delaware Senator Chris Coons, the co-sponsor of proposed legislation to change how the USDA compensates farmers when the next outbreak comes. We discuss why this is an important topic for the poultry farming community, how insurance works right now, and lessons from the last outbreak.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Bill Gross on the End of the Great Bond Bull Market
Bill Gross became known as the Bond King during his legendary, multi-decade run at Pimco, eventually growing the company to manage trillions of dollars. Of course, that success coincided with a remarkable bond bull market -- a bull market that came to a screeching halt over the course of the last two years. So what does Gross think of markets today? And could there ever be a new bond king in this environment? During a live episode of the Odd Lots podcast, taped at the Future Proof conference in Huntington Beach, California, Gross talked about the state of the market, reflected on his career, discussed the things that make him happy today, and addressed old rivals and competitors.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
What Rising Rates and Surging Insurance Prices Are Doing to Real Estate
In some respects, the real estate market has been surprisingly resilient in the face of rising interest rates. Homebuilders have generally performed well and home prices have not tumbled the way many might have expected. But looked at in another light, rising interest rates and reduced credit availability mean some real estate projects that might have made sense a year or two ago are no longer penciling out. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with David O'Reilly, the CEO of Howard Hughes Holdings, a major publicly-traded real estate developer with Master Planned Communities all over the country. Thanks to the company's role in the real estate market, David has perspective on all aspects of real estate, from housing to offices to retail development. We discuss the impact of higher rates, costlier insurance, and inflation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Self-Driving Cars Might Finally Be For Real This Time
A decade ago, there was a lot of hype about self driving cars. In fact, there was more interest in self-driving cars than there was in electric vehicles, in terms of the future of the auto industry. But progress in developing these robotic cars has turned out to be slow, and many tricky challenges still have not been solved. But is the technology finally ready for prime time? On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we speak with long-time technology journalist and analyst Tim Lee, the author of the Understanding AI newsletter, about why he believes self-driving cars are here and why they're finally about to make serious commercial inroads.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This Is How New York City Gets Its Produce
Certain people claim that New York City has a reputation for... not having the best fruits and vegetables. This is a controversial point and not everyone agrees. But regardless of where you stand on this hot button issue, getting produce into the city has unique challenges for multiple reasons. So how does it all work? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Karen Karp, founder of Karen Karp & Partners and an expert in food supply chains, who works with a range of institutions to help get their produce delivered. We discuss the three main ways that fruits and vegetables come into NYC, the key role of the Hunts Point distribution terminal, and how this important supply chain can be improved.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.